Contract Extension Stock Watch: Part 5- Vikings

This article is the fifth of a 32-part series where we look at players from all NFL teams entering their contract year, their performance, and their team's financial situation. Moving from one North division to another, let's look at the Minnesota Vikings, and we'll be looking at 34-year-old quarterback Kirk Cousins as he enters his twelfth year in the NFL.

Production

A former Michigan State product, Cousins has been one of the most controversial quarterbacks on the field, and even after 11 years, people still question his ability. Drafted by the formerly-named Washington Redskins as a 5th-rounder to sit behind generational talent Robert Griffin III, Cousins was met with low expectations coming into the league. However, Griffin continuously dealt with injuries, which led to Cousins occasionally getting spot starts during his first three years. Finally, in his fourth season, Cousins got his chance after being chosen to be the starter, and shined, leading his Redskins to the playoffs and leading the league in completion percentage. Despite losing in the first round, the Redskins saw enough in Cousins to offer a 20 million-dollar franchise tag to keep him around. The consistent quarterback rewarded his team for the money by having a career year and being named to the Pro Bowl, although his team did miss the playoffs. Unable to reach a contract extension, Cousins played under the franchise tag yet again, and slightly regressed this year as he entered free agency. He was highly sought after in free agency and chose the Minnesota Vikings, signing a 3-year, 84 million deal that made him the highest-paid player in the NFL at the time. Cousins' first three years in Minnesota were certainly not disappointing, but at the same time, they weren't amazing. He reached one Pro Bowl, led his Vikings to one playoff appearance, and hovered around an average of 4000 passing yards a season. After signing a two-year, 66 million-dollar deal, Cousins' fourth year with the Vikings went similarly to his first three, as he threw for 4200 yards, received a Pro Bowl nod, and missed the playoffs yet again. His most recent season, 2022, turned out to be a career year for him, as he led his team to a 13-4 record, highlighted by his lead of the largest comeback in NFL history. Helped by the emergence of All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson, Cousins threw for over 4500 yards, earned a 4th Pro Bowl nod, and entered the playoffs as a heavily favored 3 seed. Still, despite a solid game from Cousins, the Vikings defense crumbled, giving Cousins yet another playoff loss. After 8 seasons starting in the NFL, Cousins faces a lot of praise and criticism, and entering a contract year, tons of eyes will be on him.

Contract Situation

Cousins will play the 2023 season on a 1 year, 35-million-dollar deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent. The first question is how much money Cousins will command as he seeks a new deal. Cousins' consistency is unquestioned, as he's thrown for more than 3500 yards in every season he's started, and more than 4000 yards in 7 of his 8 starting seasons. On the flip side however, Cousins has faced constant scrutiny for his performance under pressure, as he holds a 1-4 playoff record and 12-20 primetime record as the starting quarterback. Still, the quarterback position is without a doubt the most lucrative in the NFL, and recent deals indicate that Cousins will soon get the biggest payday of his career. Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson just signed deals with an AAV (Average Annual Value) of 52.5 million and 52 million, respectively, making them the two highest-paid quarterbacks right now. Obviously, Cousins does not have the age and pedigree of those two quarterbacks, but it does speak to the market. A more comparable contract for Cousins would be Matthew Stafford's four-year, 160-million-dollar deal that was signed last offseason. Stafford signed it at 34 years old coming off a Super Bowl, while Cousins is currently 35. Assuming Cousins doesn't shatter expectations or disappoint greatly, we can expect Cousins to receive a 1-3 year deal with an AAV of 40-45 million dollars. Now the second question is are the Vikings willing to pay that much money for their quarterback and will Kirk Cousins want to stay? The Vikings cannot do anything to prevent Cousins from becoming an unrestricted free agent, meaning if Cousins wants to leave, he can do so. The veteran recently revealed that contract extension talks have stalled and they will likely continue next March. This means that Cousins is betting on himself to improve and command more money next offseason, which makes sense given Cousins' familiarity with the offense and star-studded supporting cast. The Vikings have already been trying to move towards a younger team this offseason after releasing core veteran pieces Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and also trading Za'darius Smith. While a future contract is all dependent on Cousins' play this year, it seems unlikely that the Vikings' current quarterback play is enough to elevate those around him to a Super Bowl win. They'll still perform well and likely reach the playoffs, giving them a late first round pick as enter a mini "rebuild." I could see Minnesota letting their quarterback walk as they sign a cheaper option or draft a quarterback such as J.J McCarthy from Michigan, Bo Nix out of Oregon, or Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington, as they retool to compete in future years.

Potential Landing Spots

If Cousins does indeed explore free agency, where could he land? My pick would be the San Francisco 49ers, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has publicly shown a desire to coach Kirk Cousins as his starting quarterback. The 49ers offer a plethora of weapons at his disposal, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey, along with elite offensive lines and defenses. Not only that, Cousins' pocket presence and consistency would mesh perfectly with Shanahan's QB-friendly offense. As for the other quarterbacks on their active roster, Trey Lance will likely find a new home sooner than later through a trade, while Brock Purdy has struggled in camp and has yet to show consistency as a starter. Overall, I believe after a solid year from Kirk Cousins, he will sign a 2 year, 84 million dollar deal to quarterback the 49ers.