Inside the Crazy NFL Second-Round Contract Standoff

With training camps starting to open and the first game action coming in less than three weeks, something unusual is happening across the NFL: 30 of 32 second round rookie players remain unsigned. This highly unprecedented stat signals a growing standoff over guaranteed money, and it is one that could redefine contract negotiations for years to come in professional sports.

Thanks to the 2011 CBA, rookie contracts are generally standardized, especially in the first round: four fully guaranteed years, with a fifth-year team option. While the terms of first round contracts are well-known, for second-rounders, the picture becomes blurrier. Contracts are still slotted based on draft position, but the guarantees vary beyond the first two years, which are guaranteed. Keon Coleman, the first pick of the 2024 NFL second round, has 80% of his 2027 (his fourth year) guaranteed, the highest of his class.

Enter Jayden Higgins, the second pick of this year's second round by the Houston Texans. Higgins made history as the first ever second rounder to negotiate a fully guaranteed four year deal, and Carson Schwesinger, the 33rd pick of the draft with the Cleveland Browns, followed suit. Now, the rest of the second-round class is staying patient and not signing any deals yet, perhaps signaling a coordinated holdout in demand for more guarantees. Tre Harris, the 55th pick of this years draft, has officially become the first player to hold out training camp, with Chargers training camp already started.

So why the holdout? While binding slot values remove leverage on total compensation, the 2011 CBA still allows guarantee structures to be negotiated. Then, when players like Higgins and Schwesinger receive unusually favorable terms, it creates reference points that shift the negotiation baseline, also known as anchoring bias. As a result, the actions of the Texans and the Browns, especially the former, could destabilize the entire draft structure as players bet on short-term pain for long-term gain.

For players, holding out of training camps offers its pros and cons. Missing crucial reps in the lead-up to preseason reduces their chances of earning playing time in perhaps the most important season of their careers. Additionally, this holdout could leave a sour taste in the mouths of coaching staff and the front office, but at the same time, if they were to get hurt in workouts while being unsigned, many more problems could be raised. With the average career in the NFL only being less than four years, and many positions becoming more and more replaceable, such as the running back position, the extra guaranteed money of two-three million, even if not much for a pro athlete, could be life-changing.

This drama also feeds into broader tensions that could boil over by the time the next CBA gets negotiated in 2030. Owners and GMs want more flexibility, and players want more security, but if the players can succeed and win the battle, it could lead to fully guaranteed contracts beyond round 1 or higher minimums for third and fourth year salaries.

For now, the second-rounders will keep their eye on Tyler Shough, the 40th pick of this year's draft to the New Orleans Saints. Shough's situation is unique in comparison to the rest of the second-rounders, as he stands as the favorite to be the Week 1 starting quarterback for the Saints. With quarterback being the most important position in football and the quarterback room being lackluster behind Shough, the second rounders and their respective agents are hoping the Saints front office becomes desperate enough for a quarterback to also offer Shough a fully-guaranteed deal. Regardless of what happens with Shough, it is likely that a domino effect will occur once he signs, whether it is in the players' favor or the team's.

As more training camps open and more reps disappear, it will be interesting to see the pressure rookies feel. The worst-case for players? Desperation signings occur as they try to get into training camp as soon as possible, resetting the market and also setting the players back as they fight for a starting job. The worst case for teams? They miss out on key contributors or they lose negotiating power forever. One way or another, history is being written, before a single down is even being played.