Contract Extension Stock Watch: Part 1- Ravens

This article is the first of a 32-part series where we look at players from all NFL teams entering their contract year, their performance, and their team's financial situation. First up is the Baltimore Ravens, and we'll be looking at 23-year-old linebacker Patrick Queen as he enters his fourth year.

Production

Despite being just 20 years old when he was selected with pick 28 in the 2020 draft, Queen was forced to shoulder a heavy load in his rookie season as the top option in a depleted linebacker room consisting of LJ Fort, Malik Harrison, and Chris Board. On paper, the LSU product's rookie season stats were solid: 106 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception. Still, although he finished third in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, he was evidently lost during many coverage and blitz plays and experienced growing pains. Set up with sky-high expectations for his sophomore season, Queen disappointed, often being benched in coverage situations, and actually regressed statistically. In this past season, his third, already labeled a bust, the inside linebacker redeemed himself by putting together what was by far the most remarkable season of his young career. Queen achieved career highs in tackles, sacks, interceptions, and pass defended, and came together with midseason acquisition Roquan Smith to form one of the deadliest linebacker duos in the NFL. As one of the leaders of a top-ten defense in terms of yards allowed, Queen unquestionably provides value to the Ravens, but does the organization believe in him enough to offer a contract extension?

Contract Situation

This past May, the Ravens, to the surprise of many, declined Queen's fifth-year option, which would have kept Queen through the 2024 season for a cost of about 13 million dollars. Generally, when a player has their fifth-year option, they are often let go after their rookie contract has ended, and this case will likely be true with fellow first-round picks such as Javon Kinlaw, Jalen Reagor, and Cesar Ruiz. However, Ravens' general manager Eric Decosta recently stated on "The Lounge" podcast that despite declining his fifth-year option, the Ravens hope to sign Queen to a long-term extension soon. If the Ravens wanted to keep Queen, why would they decline his option then? First, if Queen was to sign an extension, the hope for the Ravens would be to sign him for less than what his option would have cost them, which is about 13 million. Second, there is the well-known contract phenomenon that extends through all sports explaining that players play better the year before they are supposed to hit free agency. So, what could a potential extension for Queen look like, and what would prevent one from occurring? Both sides will certainly be looking at similar recent contracts signed by inside linebackers, and a very comparable extension would be that of Bobby Okereke. Okereke and Queen are seen as similarly talented linebackers who make impacts in different ways. This March, Okereke signed a 4-year, 40 million deal, and if an extension were to be done, we could expect the numbers to be similar. The Ravens would likely point out that Okereke was statistically better and offered more value as a three-down player while Queen's agents would point out Queen's attractive youth and pass-rushing upside. However, perhaps the biggest obstacle to these extension talks is the Ravens' financial capabilities. They just recently signed their franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson and Queen's running mate Roquan Smith to major extensions, and are currently only looking at a cap space of 21 million for 2024 with rookie and free agent signings looming. Of course, restructuring and cutting will happen prior to the 2024 season, but the Ravens may not be willing to sign an expensive contract with Queen with their limited money. Finally, the Ravens are not in dire need of Queen, especially when they have All-Pro Roquan Smith and incoming third-round pick Trenton Simpson. Overall, Queen's inconsistent play and obstacles for the Ravens to climb through in order to reach an extension may leave the former first-round pick looking for a new team next offseason.

Potential Landing Spots

If Queen does indeed leave Baltimore after this year, where could he land, and for how much money? A potential landing spot and a great fit for Queen would be in Houston playing for defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans. Second-year linebacker Christian Harris projects as more of an outside linebacker in Ryans' scheme and Christian Kirksey, the projected starter at inside linebacker hits free agency next year as well. Additionally, Queen's attractive speed, athleticism, and youth would be perfect for the rebuilding Houston Texans and their 4-3 defensive scheme. So what could a contract look like? The Texans have flexible cap space and no major extensions looming, meaning that based on the current linebacker market, a potential contract along the lines of four years for 38 million dollars would make sense. Nonetheless, Queen will certainly be a player to keep an eye on for the rest of this offseason and the entirety of next year.